"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those rather than parlays. Some of you may not understand how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, combined with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it sounds like. Without a doubt Team A and when it wins you then place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a kind of "if" bet where you bet on the initial team, and if it wins without a doubt double on the next team. With a true "if" bet, rather than betting double on the second team, you bet an equal amount on the next team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you would like to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can be made on two games kicking off simultaneously. The bookmaker will wait until the first game is over. If the first game wins, he'll put an equal amount on the second game though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the second bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the second bet can't be cancelled, even if the second game have not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you will have action on the next game. Because of this, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games without a doubt overlap with time, however, the only method to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the second game bet is not an issue. It should be noted, that when the two games start at differing times, most books will not allow you to complete the next game later. You need to designate both teams once you make the bet.
You may make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I want to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the second team. Whether or not the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 when you lose on the initial team. If the initial team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a complete win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" would be $110, and the utmost win would be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, rather than just $10 of vig, each time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a great deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. If you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. In the event that you split but the loser is the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This type of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes only a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you wish to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the identical to if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. Both "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also function as same as in the event that you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each one of the bets for a complete maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Rather than losing $110 when the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 once the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It computes this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the initial combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the second combination of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the second "if" bet offers you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the second combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller loss of $60 instead of $110 when the first team loses with no decrease in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it has the benefit of making the chance more predictable, and preventing the worry as to which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations give you a headache, skip them and write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the rules in an an easy task to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win a lot more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting on one should not be made dependent on whether you win another. Alternatively, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the initial team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he could be not betting the second game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Remember that next time someone tells you that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A good winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by a winner with a confident expectation in only two circumstances::
If you find no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of you have no other choice is if you are the best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux so you left it in the automobile, you only bet offshore in a deposit account with no credit line, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap with time, you pull out your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your head up high, put a smile on your face, look for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Of course you could bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is a wonderful replacement for the parlay in case you are winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With https://new8869.org/ , the bettor is getting the benefit of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the truth that we make the second bet only IF one of the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig regardless of how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when one of our combinations comes in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Predicated on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or over will come in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it is much more likely that the game will review the comparatively low total, and when the favorite does not cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will beneath the total. As we have previously seen, if you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The actual possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines on the side and total are one to the other, but the proven fact that they are co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet than the parlay when making our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only have to win one out from the two. Each of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we are in need of is a 72% probability that when, for instance, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the full total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point from a win. A BC cover will result in an over 72% of the time is not an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.
In comparison with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a total increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."